Global Oil Production Forecast

Country-by-country production estimates (2020–2028) with major project tracking, decline rate analysis, and price scenario modeling.

Production by Country

Scenario Analysis

Existing Field Decline Rates

Major Projects Pipeline

Update & Maintain Estimates

Methodology & Sources

Historical data (2020–2024): U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). Figures represent crude oil + condensate production.

Estimates (2025–2028): Based on announced project timelines, field decline curves, OPEC+ policy assumptions, and capital expenditure guidance from national oil companies and major IOCs.

Decline rates: Estimated weighted-average natural decline for existing producing fields, absent new drilling or enhanced recovery. Actual decline is partially offset by infill drilling, workovers, and EOR. Rates vary by field maturity and geology.

Price scenarios:

  • Bear ($45–55): Demand destruction from recession/EV adoption; OPEC+ loses discipline; oversupply. Capex cut → project delays and steeper effective declines.
  • Base ($65–80): Current consensus trajectory. Moderate demand growth, OPEC+ manages supply. All sanctioned projects proceed on schedule.
  • Bull ($90–110): Supply disruptions, strong demand, geopolitical risk premia. All FID-pending projects sanctioned; enhanced recovery investments accelerated.

Limitations: This is an analytical model, not a prediction. Geopolitical events, OPEC+ policy shifts, technology breakthroughs, and demand-side changes can materially alter outcomes. Country production may also be constrained by OPEC+ quotas rather than capacity.